English Premier League ELO Soccer Simulator

Contact and support info (click to collapse)
For any questions, suggestions, new feature requests, bug reports or issues you run into please email me at vaskov17@yahoo.com

If you find this tool useful and would like to buy me a coffee please do so using Paypal @vaskov17
How this works (click to collapse)

This simulator uses an ELO-type ranking system that allows users to select game outcomes in the English Premier League, then simulates 2500 seasons and generates a comparison of the results with and without the user selections. Match outcomes are calculated in real time so which introduces randomness to the results, so selecting the same match results and running multiple simulations is likely to generate slightly different results each time.

Game results will be updated at least once a week during the season at completion of each game week

The two main sections are "Completed matches" and "Future fixtures". Completed section shows all the games for the completed weeks and the game outcome. Future section shows any games that have not been played

In order to run a simulation, select the outcomes for at least 1 game in either section and then click the "Run Simulations" button. It takes about 5 seconds to run both simulations and display the results in a table at the bottom.

Changing game results in the completed section, allows users to run "what if" scenarios to see what would have happened if matches turned out differently

The "Team" dropdown allows users to select a team which results in the matches sections only displaying the games that team is involved in.

The results table shows team name, average position from all simulations, average points, wins, draws, losses from all simulations and the percent of simulations in which each team finishes first, in the top 4, fifth, sixth through seventeenth and in the bottom 3.

Understanding the results

Each cell in the output table shows 2 values: first value is the results from the simulations which take into consideration any user changes, second value is the results from simulations without user changes.

The position column shows the average position each team finishes in the simulations. For example if a team finishes 1st twice and 2nd once in three simulations, the average position would be (1 + 1 + 2) / 3 = 1.33.

The points, wins, draws, losses columns show the averages of those values from all Simulations

The percentage columns for the leage positions show what percent of the simulations end with each team finishing in that position. For example, if Arsenal has 50% (45%) in the "First %" column, that means that they are expected to finish first in 45% of the simulations where the user has not made any changes and finish first in 50% of the simulations where the user has made changes. Implying that the user selections result in a 5% higher chance for Arsenal to finish first.