Soccer Simulator

Know how the season ends
before it does.

We simulate every remaining match in your league thousands of times using Elo ratings built from up to 14 years of historical data β€” then show you the title odds, relegation risks, and everything in between. 32 leagues. 16 countries. No account needed.

1
Pick a league
Use the dropdowns above
2
Run simulations
Takes a few seconds
3
Explore 19 views
Tables, charts & scenarios
How the model works
Elo ratings from real history
Every team carries an Elo rating built by replaying up to 14 seasons of actual results. Ratings are regressed toward the mean at each season boundary so recent form matters more than ancient dominance. Newly promoted teams are seeded at a lower starting rating reflecting the typical quality gap between divisions.
Match simulation
Each remaining fixture is simulated by blending two signals: an Elo-based expectation (how good are these teams?) and a form-based expectation (how have they been scoring and conceding recently?). The blend shifts as the season progresses β€” Elo dominates early, form gains weight as more data comes in. Goal counts are drawn from a Poisson distribution calibrated to each league's actual scoring rate.
Monte Carlo season sim
The full remaining schedule is played out thousands of times. In each run, simulated results feed back into ratings and form β€” so a team that gets lucky early carries momentum into later fixtures. Final tables are ranked by points, goal difference, then goals scored, and aggregate stats are computed across all runs.
Home advantage & goal-difference scaling
Home teams receive a fixed Elo boost in every match. Elo updates are amplified by the margin of victory β€” a dominant win shifts ratings more than a narrow one, better reflecting the true gap between sides.
19 views, tools & exports
Predictions
Now vs. Projected Live table vs simulated season-end β€” current pts/W/D/L alongside projected averages, with a position-change arrow for every team.
Finish Probabilities Full position matrix: the exact probability each team finishes 1st, 2nd… last, with sparklines and zone highlights for title, Europe, and relegation.
Points Distribution Box plot showing min, P10, P25, median, P75, P90, and max simulated points β€” your team's ceiling and floor, and how confident the model is.
Uncertainty IQR and standard deviation of finishing position β€” instantly shows which teams are locked into a zone and which could realistically end up anywhere.
Form & Performance
xPts vs Actual Compares points earned to what ELO predicted β€” flags teams running hot or cold relative to their underlying quality.
Form Colour-coded W/D/L dot grid plus points-earned badges for the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 games β€” sortable by any window.
Form vs ELO Shows whether recent results are better or worse than ELO says they should be β€” a leading indicator of regression or continued momentum.
ELO Swings Per-team rating change season-to-date, with a match-by-match drill-down showing result, margin of victory, and ELO impact for every game played.
Streaks Five live streak categories β€” unbeaten, win run, winless, clean sheets, scoring β€” showing current streak vs season best, sortable.
Result Probabilities Rates every completed result by its pre-match probability β€” highlights the biggest upsets of the season and shows which results were nearly inevitable.
Upcoming Fixtures
Next 10 Games Dot-chart of each team's next 10 fixtures with home/away-adjusted win probability per game β€” spot easy runs and brutal fixture piles at a glance.
Schedule Difficulty Ranks every team's remaining fixtures by average opponent ELO (home/away adjusted) and counts top-6 games remaining β€” see whose run-in is genuinely hard.
Team Stats
Attack & Defence GF/game, GA/game, PPG, and home/away splits for every team, plus an auto-assigned style tag β€” dominant, defensive, attacking, leaky, or toothless.
Clean Sheets Defensive and attacking reliability: CS%, BTTS%, blank rate, and 3+ goal margins β€” all split home vs away and sortable.
Team Records Every simulated future W/D/L record grouped by frequency β€” click any record to see fixture-by-fixture win probabilities and average scorelines.
Tools & Export
Scenario Mode Force any combination of match outcomes before running β€” the simulator runs a full second 2,500-sim pass and shows exactly how each forced result shifts title, promotion, and relegation odds vs the baseline.
Fixture Impact Click 'impact' on any upcoming fixture to run three quick simulations β€” one for each outcome β€” and see a side-by-side table of how every team's projected finish shifts depending on the result.
Match Analytics Hit the β“˜ button on any fixture for a full pre-match breakdown: win/draw/loss probabilities, a scoreline probability grid, and export β€” available on every completed and upcoming game.
Sim from Week Rewind to any past round and re-simulate the season from that point β€” replay key moments, test counterfactuals, or see how the table might have unfolded from any week.
Export Download the full simulation as a CSV β€” every team's position, points, W/D/L, and goals across all 2,500 runs β€” plus a separate fixture CSV with predicted scorelines, or save any view as an image.